The New Trend in Condoms: Feel Good Condoms

When I say ‘feel good’ condoms, I am not talking about the sensation down in the nether regions.  No, I am talking about a trend that is more focused on the hearts and minds of end users and less on their genitalia.  I am talking about the emerging companies that are trying to introduce eco-friendly, fair trade, globally conscious condoms.

Obviously targeting only the most affluent segment of earth, these condoms are high priced and high minded.  But they seek to fit a niche of the overall category and the way they do business will likely have implications for the global condom business.  If nothing else, its interesting to see how they are approaching their business and take a few lessons from what they are doing.  So in a brief snapshot, let me give you the trends that are happening out there in the world of ‘feel good’ condoms:

I Buy, Therefore I Am:

Thorstein Veblen would be proud of all the conspicuous consumption happening these days, particularly if he were an environmentalist!  So who is buying these fancy condoms and championing their cause? The rise of the “socially conscious consumer” segment, often referred to as the LOHAS (Lifestyles Of Health And Sustainability) segment, in developed nations is staggering.

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The LOHAS segment now represents 23% of the population (about 50 million adults) in the United States, and 29% of the population in Japan (about 37 million). What is astounding is the speed with which the group appeared, moving from less than 4 percent of the U.S. population in the 1960s to more than 23% percent in the 1990s, a new record for such a population trend.  And what many new companies understand is that this group has different drivers in their path to purchase, namely that if a product is either environmentally or socially friendly in its production, they will more than likely try it and, if they love it, wear it on their shirt sleeves.

If You Build It, They Will Come (and Probably Invest):

Instead of simply launching a new product in the conventional sense, many LOHAS-focused brands recognize the passion with which their target consumers purchase and have leveraged crowd-sourcing/crowd funding to drive their businesses forward, ensuring true consumer engagement and brand loyalty (there is no better way to ensure loyalty amongst your target audience than getting them to invest in your brand financially!).

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Why is crowd-sourcing so popular?  Jeff Howe, the person who first brought it to common knowledge in Wired Magazine around 10 years ago, cites four main reasons for the rise of crowd-sourcing that can influence how we all think about our brands:

  • First, the renaissance of amateurs as a counterweight to the increasingly global division of labor and the decoupling of production with the established individual hobby movements and a high desire for creativity and participation.
  • Second, the Open Source Revolution: The Wikipedia example shows that the ability to participate in some aspect of something big can be enough motivation.
  • Third, the democratization of the means of production. Those who used AutoCad 3D Labs for technical drawings, which cost $200,000, can now make almost the same thing for free using Google SketchUp.
  • Fourth, the rise of communities: in the past, people were physically clustered into neighborhoods while today you are able to group interests digitally.

Every recent LOHAS-targeted condom launched in the past has leveraged crowd funding (and it’s not only happening in condoms, its happening with millions of small start ups).  From Einhorn Condoms (sustainable, fair trade, open source, and delivery service) to L Condoms (socially friendly – Tom’s Shoes/Warby Parker model – one hour delivery service, when the need arises), Sustain Condoms (fair trade, sustainable, and empowering to women), and Love Letter Condoms (EU certified fair trade or “fair play” and sustainable).  Not to mention the countless complimentary brands marketing eco-friendly sexual enhancers, lingerie, toys, etc.

I am Woman, Hear Me Roar!:

Many of the LOHAS-targeted condom brands are placing women front and center in their business plan.  Whether they are targeting women specifically (Sustain and French Letter Condoms) or targeting men who are concerned about satisfying their female partners (L Condoms), condom brands are wising up to something the cosmetics brands discovered a while ago: LOHAS-female consumers are cognizant of what they put on, or inside, their body and want to know that its 1) safe and 2) not coming at the cost of someone else’s well being.

The co-founders of Sustain (a daughter and father team, he was the founder of Seventh Generation) aim to appeal to sophisticated young women to help change attitudes about women proactively carrying condoms and feeling empowered to behave intelligently when it comes to protection.  They have found that a rather high figure of condom purchasers in the United States are women (around 40%), despite the predominance of male-targeted campaigns from the likes of Trojan and Durex, and that only 19% of sexually active single women aged 22-44 use condoms regularly.

Front_Product_Hero_R3Above: Sustain Condoms is paving the way for female empowerment amongst the LOHAS-female segment, offering attractive packaging and products at PoS and for delivery.

Their website (check it out here) is very clean, modern, and tailored nicely for their target audience.  The packaging is heavily focused on sustainability, with everything from the gift bags to the condoms themselves being made from fair-trade and renewable resources.  And the products will also be available at some more fashion-centric retail outlets like American Apparel (although not the brand I would call the epitome of female empowerment!) and Urban Outfitters.

Check out a recent video interview here they conducted with Business Insider for a brief snapshot of the condom development process, some interesting statistics about condoms worldwide, and a brief intro into how they see their contribution in the fight for a world of safe sex.

l-condomsAbove: L Condoms are fair-trade, sustainable, offer a free condom to someone in need for every one you purchase, and last but not least – they deliver to your door when you need one in a hurry.

And while L Condoms seems to be targeting men directly, it recognizes the driver behind a lot of LOHAS-male consumers purchasing patterns: an earnest female partner who has certain expectations of him.  Check out their hilarious and provocative commercial (very reminiscent of Old Spice’s “The Man Your Man Could Smell Like” campaign):

So the take aways here are as follows: conspicuous consumption is not going anywhere and more and more people are identifying with brands that champion their beliefs (the list is endless, think about beers and football clubs if you are struggling to connect this logic to a developing context); true consumer engagement is a key driver of success (and something we can all apply to our business models, irrespective of who our audience is); remember the driving influence behind your target audience’s behavior (behind every man is a powerful woman, no matter what country we are talking about).

Some Thoughts on Nudge Theory

PSI has been in the business of behavioral change ever since its inception, leveraging identified determinants of behavior to influence behavioral outcomes in our target audience. Hence why we entered the field of social marketing, because it taps into behavioral change theory. And it works.

More recently, there has been a dialogue in academia around “nudge theory” and behavioral economics, which is basically a new label for what PSI realized over 40 years ago. But since we rarely engage on these topics of “heuristics” or “nudge marketing,” likely because we feel we understand them completely already, I wanted to share a few notable observations on the discussions being had around nudge marketing, since I think the discussion has evolved to a point where we can start applying some of the lessons learned – particularly when it comes to influencing shoppers behavior.

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Origins of Nudge Theory:

So everyone is on the same page, nudge theory is all about encouraging individuals to make better choices (as understood in the context of public health, economic well being, etc.). The craze started around 2008, when former Obama administration regulatory affairs administrator Cass R. Sunstein and the University of Chicago professor Richard H. Thaler published their book “Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness,” which was a popularization of the work done by Nobel Prize-winning psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky back in the 1970s (around the same time PSI adopted this thinking).

Thaler-Sunstein think of nudge theory as follows:

“…A nudge, as we will use the term, is any aspect of the choice architecture that alters people’s behavior in a predictable way without forbidding any options or significantly changing their economic incentives. To count as a mere nudge, the intervention must be easy and cheap to avoid. Nudges are not mandates. Putting fruit at eye level counts as a nudge. Banning junk food does not…”

So you can see that nudge theory is not about enforcement but about persuasion. It’s about creating an environment, or offering subtle queues, that encourages individuals to make better decisions.

And if you think about it, that’s what social marketing is – the science of persuasion. For a fun video on the science of persuasion, check out the below from Dr. Robert Cialdini, Professor of Marketing and Psychology at Arizona State University:

In the video, you will see that the author writes about 6 key universal shortcuts that guide people’s behavior and that can be leveraged to influence the behavior of others:

  • Reciprocity – social obligation to give when you receive
  • Scarcity – people want more of what they can have less of
  • Authority – people follow advice of experts
  • Consistency – people usually stick to things after a small commitment has been made
  • Liking – people prefer to say yes to those people they like.
  • Consensus – people look to the action and behavior of others to determine their own.

Now these fundamental channels for persuasion can easily be used by marketers to influence people’s decisions, and they have been for years. And the video does a good job of highlighting some of these campaigns, such as the one done for the British Airways Concord Flight and how waiters can increase their tips.

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Nudge Theory and Behavioral Economics

You may ask why the need for nudging at all. That is, couldn’t we simply tell people what they need to know and hope that they make a rational decision with the information at hand? This is something that governments, donors, and even a few of our own PSI staff often suggest. But the problem is that behavioral economics shows that people are not rational when it comes to choices. If they were, we could simply state the facts and expect people to make better decisions.

The problem is that making decisions sucks. It’s frustrating for people and actually causes physical discomfort. So when it comes down to making decisions, they need to rely on shortcuts or quick tricks to help them make decisions quickly. This also applies to shopping, where we have to engage in an economic trade and could potentially lose out. Daniel McFadden, a Professor of Economics at Berkeley who recently published “The New Science of Pleasure,” (view it here) puts it this way:

“Trade is a contest, with a chance of coming out on the short end. Animals in “fight or flee” situations often find it safer to flee. Similarly, people in situations where trade is possible, or even promising, may find it safer to turn away. It takes trust to trade. McDonald’s is successful because it has created a brand people trust – they know what to expect. A “30-day free trial” or “satisfaction or your money back” or “bring us a better price and we will refund the difference” are offers by merchants intended to promote the idea that they can be trusted, and that the risk of an unsatisfactory trade is low.

Real estate agents take advantage of people’s discomfort with decision-making. Since buying a house is highly consequential and difficult to reverse, rational people should look at a great many options and think them through very carefully. A good agent will show you a few houses that are expensive and not very nice, and then one at almost the same price and far nicer. Many buyers will respond by stopping their search and jumping on this bargain. Our susceptibility to “bargains” is one of the cognitive devices we use to simplify choice situations, and one that companies are conscious of when they position their products.”

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Lessons from Nudge Theory

So you might be asking yourself, what does all of this have to do with selling condoms? Well, a lot actually. Because people rely on cognitive devices or shortcuts to simplify their decision making and behavioral choices, it’s important for social marketers to understand how to leverage these devices and shortcuts to improve our impact.

A few key takeaways from recent applications of, and discussions about, nudge theory:

Nudge marketing calls for applying just the right amount of pressure to persuade: not too little, not too much.

In one early test at a store in Virginia, grocery carts carried a strip of yellow duct tape that divided the baskets neatly in half; a flier instructed shoppers to put their fruits and vegetables in the front half of the cart. Average produce sales per customer jumped to $8.85 from $3.99.

Here in El Paso a few months ago, the researchers focused on the floor, laying down large plastic mats bearing huge green arrows that pointed shoppers to the produce aisle. The outcome surprised no one more than the grocer.

“In retail, the customer tends to go to the right,” said Tim Taylor, the produce director for Lowe’s, Pay and Save, a regional grocery chain that let the scientists in to experiment with their arrows and mirrors. “But I watched when the arrows were down, pointing left, and that’s where people went: left, 9 out of 10.”

With those same guinea-pig customers, the scientists tinkered again with the cart, creating a glossy placard that hung inside the baskets like the mirrors. In English and Spanish, the signs told shoppers how much produce the average customer was buying (five items a visit), and which fruits and vegetables were the biggest sellers (bananas, limes and avocados) — information that, in scientific parlance, conveys social norms, or acceptable behavior.

By the second week, produce sales had jumped 10 percent, with a whopping 91 percent rise for those participating in the government nutrition program called Women, Infants and Children. Lowe’s was so excited that it now plans to put the placards in every cart at its 22 stores in El Paso and nearby Las Cruces, N.M., and perhaps later at all 146 of its stores.

Nudge marketing calls for applying just the right amount of pressure to persuade: not too little, not too much. In the El Paso grocery trials, using both the green arrows on the floor with the green placards in the carts caused produce sales to fall.

“It nudged too hard,” Mr. Payne said.

(Excerpts from NYTimes, “Nudged to the Produce Aisle by a Look in the Mirror,” 8/27/13)

Social Networks Matter:

Economic demographer Hans Peter Kohler (2001) has investigated the effect of word-of-mouth communication from friends on choice of contraceptive. He studies Korean peasant women, who have access to relatively little public information on efficacy, costs, and side effects of new contraceptives. Choices within villages show little diversity, but there is substantial, persistent diversity across villages.

This pattern not explained by income, education, or price differences. Word of mouth communication from friends was found to be the important explanation of most women’s choices. Lack of inter-village mobility explained multiple equilibria, with persistent inter-village differences. Thus, some apparent taste heterogeneity is due to the boundedly rational practice of imitation in balkanized social networks.

The moral is that any complete measurement system for consumer behavior must account for social network effects. Suggestions for measurement are that stated perceptions and preferences should be conditioned on the behavior of members in an individual’s social network, and the distribution of consumption in social equilibrium should be modeled as the (often non-unique) solution to a game in which choices of peers matter.

(Excerpts from “The New Science of Pleasure,” by Daniel L. McFadden, January, 2013)

Grocers are Already Applying Nudge Theory to The Shopping Experience

THE SWEETEST ITEMS are sold at eye level, midway along aisles, where shoppers’ attention lingers longest.

THE ENDS OF AISLES are huge revenue generators, especially for soda, which makes 45 percent of its sales through racks there, according to the Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council.

IMPULSE PURCHASES (60 percent of purchases are unplanned) can be encouraged by placing items next to checkouts.

FREE-STANDING DISPLAYS are also effective toward the rear of the supermarket and on the left side of aisles. Research cited by the Coca-Cola council shows that shoppers move through the store counterclockwise, from the back to the front; in the aisles, they buy items mostly from shelves to their left.

SPRINKLING THE SAME PRODUCT throughout the store, rather than grouping it in one spot, will boost sales through repetitive exposure.

GROUPING THE INGREDIENTS for a meal in one spot can attract home cooks pressed for time.

POSTING HEALTH-RELATED INFORMATION — online, and on kiosks and shelf tags — can link groceries to good health in shoppers’ minds, even though only 23 percent of them say they always look for nutritional information on labels.

(Excerpts from NYTimes, “Nudged to the Produce Aisle by a Look in the Mirror,” 8/27/13)

Social marketers should leverage the identified cognitive devices (in addition to our internal behavioral determinants terminology) when thinking about new social marketing efforts and trade marketing efforts

(Excerpt from “Nudge Theory,” on http://www.businessballs.com, 2013-2014)

Introducing the World’s First “Fairstainable” Condom!

While the condom category is dominated by a few large players, really just about a handful if you count, a German start up is trying to squeeze into the mix. They go by the name of “Einhorn,” which translates to “One Horn,” or in their case a Unicorn – the brand identity (probably based on the internet meme Charlie the Unicorn). But why a Unicorn?

I suspect the Unicorn-based brand is done tongue-in-cheek, in that they hope to bring about a never before seen way of doing business. Their business model is one that is completely transparent, whereby they will divulge their entire process online, with every decision made, to ensure there is 100% visibility on their supply chain to show that their product is truly sustainable. In fact, they coined a term for this mission: “fairstainable.”

“Right now, we’re 10% sustainable. Our goal is to have an 80-90% sustainable product in five years. Every time we improve, we’ll put it online and you can see what has changed. Even if people say something isn’t possible, we’ll aim for the best-case scenario and if we don’t make our target, we’ll get close and say so. But we won’t go round saying its 100% Fairtrade or whatever … this is all bullshit and people need to realize that.”

The brand hopes to bring about a revolution in the condom world, producing the first ethical, sustainable, and fun condoms ever. The packaging is also something new, reminiscent of what we have seen with Jeito, the package comes in the form of a chip-bag (see below).

packaging 2

Above: While still in the design phase, Einhorn’s packaging is playful and highly targeted to a sophisticated, Generation Y target audience (25-35 years old).

Chip packagingAbove: If you donate a certain amount to their crowdfunding efforts, you can require personalized condom packages with your company’s logo!

The condoms themselves will come in two basic sizes, 54mm and 56mm, are transparent, and come with a slightly wider top to enhance the feel. Since one of their observations is that buying condoms is embarrassing, they will offer them for sale through mail order – with a weekly (7 units) or a yearly option (52 units, which seems kind of low for a year!). The target audience (25-35 year old Gen Y’ers) are likely to get a kick out of the brand identity online, and initial responses are very strong: Einhorn has launched a crowdfunding site and have raised €50,000 within 48 hours.

The team, led by a capitalist-turned social entrepreneur Waldemar Zeiler, started out this effort with basically no knowledge of condoms:

“We had no clue what we were doing,” he says. “But we worked together with a university in Germany [who are] experts on sustainable rubber production. We’ll go to Malaysia with German scientists and go through our plantations. Then we’ll test the soil and stay over there analysing stuff and make things better. This includes making sure the minimum wage is paid to workers and knowing what’s in the condoms.”

The entrepreneurs have started a scheme called the Entrepreneur’s Pledge based on the philanthropists’ equivalent, the Giving Pledge. They’re asking “serious entrepreneurs” and “kick ass CEOs” to fund at least one social business and give 50% of the profits to a good cause, as they are. Zeiler argues that charity giving isn’t an efficient way to spend money and suggests that a social business dollar has more impact. “If our business grows, the more revenue we make. And the more we can give back.”

Check out their teaser film below:

Check out their website here.

Now You Can Have It All: Pizza and Sex

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Inspired by a scene from the hit TV-series Friends, wherein Joey has to choose between food and sex, Russian-based designer Marina Malygina has introduced the perfect condom: the pizza condom.

Aimed at taking advantage of the cultural dilemma many individuals face – sex or food – Malygina has designed a beautiful condom package that is sure to delight many people’s appetites for both.

Trojan Jumps on “50 Shades of Grey” Bandwagon With Parody Ad

Jumping on the band wagon of the upcoming launch of 50 Shades of Grey, Trojan has recently developed its own parody commercial entitled “50 Shades of Pleasure.”

As Valentine’s Day approaches in the US, the debut of the film 50 Shades of Grey, based on the incredible popular erotic book series, is creating a lot of buzz. And Trojan is the only notable condom brand leveraging this movie launch to cash in on the potential increase in sales.

In the online short ad, apparently done in house at Trojan, a couple recounts their sexual misadventures to a therapist in couples therapy. Several entertaining stories emerge, such as the man’s never actually reading the book, self-injury at the hands of a whip, a bizarre “safe word,” and a misunderstanding involving a ninja costume. At the end of the spot, we see the tagline “Get out of the grey area, into 50 shades of real pleasure,” hero’ing Trojan’s line extensions of vibrators and lubricants – all expected to see a boost in sales over the romantic holiday.

A 15-second version of the video will be played in select AMC and Regal theaters starting next week. Trojan shared the longer version with its social media audience and on its YouTube page here.

The $755 Condom Pack in Venezuela

Bloomberg Business recently reported on the alarming situation in Venezuela, where condoms (among other staple items) are becoming incredibly scarce due to high inflation and a lack of imported goods making their way to the country.

Durex and Trojan, a few of the more popular brands in the country, have nearly stocked out – except for a few black market channels or scarce-good auction sites, such as MercadoLibre, where you can still bid on a 36-pack of Trojans for around 4,760 bolivars (roughly one months wages) which translates to about $755.

Interestingly, there is still a supply of cheaper Asian-made condoms available in parts of the country; however, the stigma against these apparently low quality condoms have kept them on shelf, despite the lack of alternatives.  Interesting to see how important brand perceptions are even in the midst of a financial crisis.  A lesson that sometimes cheap and available is not all that matters to those in dire need…

Read the entire article below:

The $755 Condom Pack Is the Latest Indignity in Venezuela

Venezuelans who already must line up for hours to buy chicken, sugar, medicines and other basic products in short supply now face a new indignity: Condoms are hard to find and nearly impossible to afford.

“The country is so messed up that now we have to wait in line even to have sex,” lamented Jonatan Montilla, a 31-year-old advertising company art director. “This is a new low.”

A collapse in oil prices has deepened shortages of consumer products from diapers to deodorant in the OPEC country that imports most of what it consumes, with crude exports accounting for about 95 percent of its foreign currency earnings. As the price the country receives for its oil exports fell 60 percent in the past seven months, the economy is being pushed to the brink with a three-in-four chance of default in the next 12 months if oil prices don’t recover.

The impact of reduced access to contraceptives is far graver than frustration over failed hookups. Venezuela has one of South America’s highest rates of HIV infection and teenage pregnancy. Abortion is illegal.

“Without condoms we can’t do anything,” Jhonatan Rodriguez, general director at the not-for-profit health group StopVIH, said by phone Jan. 28 from Venezuela’s Margarita Island. “This shortage threatens all the prevention programs we have been working on across the country.”

Scarcity, Risks

The condom shortage, caused by a scarcity of dollars among importers, has prices on a website used to find scarce goods soaring and risks aggravating one of South America’s highest HIV infection and teenage pregnancy rates.

Condoms and other contraceptives disappeared from many Venezuelan pharmacies and clinics starting in late December, as the government tightened dollar disbursements amid sliding oil revenue, according to the Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation. No condoms were available in 10 eastern and central Caracas pharmacies visited in late January, compared with as many as 20 different kinds available at some locations in November, including Reckitt Benckiser Group plc’s Durex and Church & Dwight Co.’s Trojan brands.

Infection Rate

Venezuela had the third-fastest rate of HIV infections per capita in South America, after Paraguay and Brazil in 2013, United Nations data shows. The country also has the highest rate of teenage pregnancies on the continent after Guyana, at 83 per 1,000, according to 2012 data from the World Bank. This compares to just 4 per 1,000 in Germany and 31 in the U.S.

On the auction website MercadoLibre, used by Venezuelans to obtain scarce goods, a 36-pack of Trojans sells for 4,760 bolivars ($755 at the official exchange rate), close to the country’s minimum monthly wage of 5,600 bolivars. At the unofficial black-market rate used by people with access to dollars, the cost is about $25, compared to $21 in the U.S.

A two-thirds drop in the value of Venezuelan oil since June has brought the country to the brink of a debt default, according to prices in the swaps market. Instead of cutting social spending, President Nicolas Maduro has responded to lower revenue by slashing imports.

This year Venezuela will import 42 percent less than in 2012 in dollar terms, according to Bank of America Corp. estimates.

Lining Up

Shortages of everything from flour to heart medicine have spiked since December. Hundreds of people line up outside Caracas supermarkets at delivery times to buy food or household products at subsidized prices. Protests against Maduro’s handling of shortages, inflation and crime left 43 people dead last year.

Lining Up at a Pharmacy in Caracas

People queue up outside a pharmacy in Caracas, on Jan. 20, 2015.

Photographer: Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

In Venezuela, with abortion illegal, the disappearance of contraceptives will raise the number of female deaths by driving more pregnant women to clandestine clinics, said Carlos Cabrera, vice president of the local branch of London-based International Planned Parenthood Federation. A lack of condoms will also leave a long-lasting economic impact by taking girls and young women away from schools and the work force, he said.

“An unwanted teenage pregnancy is a mark of government’s failure: failure of its economic, public health and educational policy,” said Cabrera, a practicing gynecologist in Caracas.

No Trust

In the town of Los Teques on the outskirts of Caracas, Ramo Verde pharmacy manager Katherine Munoz stood by a contraceptive shelf filled with Asian-made condoms. No Durex or Duo, a Beiersdorf AG product, have arrived in her shop since October, with stocks depleting last month, she said, adding that customers “don’t trust” the brands she has left.

“People ask me whether I have used them myself and can recommend them,” Munoz said. “I can’t say I have.”

Supplies of birth control and emergency contraceptive pills as well as anti-retroviral drugs for HIV patients are also at critically low levels, according to IPPF and StopVIH.

Durex imports to Venezuela have collapsed “because of the political situation the country is going through,” Reckitt Benckiser spokeswoman Priscilla Sotela said in an e-mailed response to questions. Church & Dwight didn’t respond to an e-mail and phone calls seeking comment

Maduro promised in 2013 to build a network of condom factories to protect Venezuela’s youth from the effects of “capitalist pornography.”

‘Ears Grow Hot’

“When the ears grow hot and nothing can wait, and everything must happen now or the world will end — that’s when you end up with a tremendous belly at 14 or 15 years of age,” he said in a televised address in June 2013. “This can’t be.”

None of the factories have been completed, according to the pharmaceutical federation President Freddy Ceballos.

Officials at Venezuela’s Health Ministry didn’t respond to e-mails and phone calls from Bloomberg News seeking comment on contraceptive shortages.

“I ran out yesterday. Now, there’s next to nothing, and what you find is really expensive,” said Montilla, the advertising company art director. “You can’t take any risks.”

To get contraceptives in the capital, residents can still go to one of three family-planning centers run by IPPF subsidiary PlaFam, where in late January condoms were sold freely for 3 bolivars a piece.

“This is all there is,” said pharmacist Carlos Hernandez as he handed out the last two condoms available in the dispensary of the University Hospital of Caracas on Jan. 29. “Who knows when we will get more.”